China’s outbound travel recovery is facing an unexpected bottleneck: a shortage of flights, according to a new survey by Dragon Trail Research.

The survey of 310 Chinese travel agents, set to be released Wednesday, reveals that over three-quarters of agents reported an increase in outbound travel demand in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period last year. A similar share noted that summer bookings were also up, defying expectations of a difficult year.

Despite strong demand, the availability of flights remains the biggest constraint. The clearest example is Japan. After a diplomatic dispute in late 2025, China cancelled roughly half of all China-Japan flights. Yet Japan ranked second among the ‘most noteworthy’ destinations for 2026 and third for summer bookings.

This paradox highlights how eager Chinese travelers are to go abroad, even when flight options are severely limited. The survey suggests that if airlines can restore capacity, the pent-up demand could fuel an even stronger rebound.

For now, travel agents and airlines are watching closely, hoping that geopolitical tensions ease and flight routes expand to meet the surging demand.